The week ending January 31st brought another modest dip in Canadian used wholesale values — down 0.32% overall. In the context of the past few months, this was actually a relatively mild week. Cars fell just 0.19% — one of the softest weekly declines in the car segment we've seen recently — while trucks dropped a bit more at 0.43%.
Spring is coming. Inventory is building. The question for Canadian dealers right now is how to read this market going into what is typically the busiest buying and selling quarter of the year.
Segment-by-Segment: What's Moving and What Isn't
On the car side, compact and sub-compact cars led declines — down about 1% and 0.85% respectively. Mid-size cars pulled back 0.56%. Those three categories have been consistent movers lower. The more stable performers were sporty cars and prestige luxury cars, both with very small declines. Premium sporty cars actually nudged slightly higher — a pattern that's repeated most weeks, since buyers in that niche are insulated from month-to-month economic noise.
Trucks had a rougher week. Compact vans fell 1.28% and sub-compact crossovers dropped close to 1%. Minivans, in contrast, crept up by 0.03% — barely positive, but continuing a quiet streak of holding value while other segments slide. Compact crossovers and full-size crossovers were among the more stable performers overall.
Auction Dynamics: Upstream Channels Are Tight
Auction conversion averaged about 54% — reasonable, with the usual wide spread across lanes. What's worth noting this week is the supply side: upstream channels continue to prioritize dealer-direct and fleet access before vehicles hit open auction. That keeps the public auction market tighter than total off-lease and fleet return volume would suggest.
For independent dealers who rely on open auction lanes, this means competition for quality units remains real even as the overall market softens. The best vehicles are being accessed before they reach your lane. That's an argument for building direct acquisition relationships — private purchase pipelines, direct trade sourcing — rather than depending entirely on auction access.
Retail Inventory Is Climbing
The average retail listing price was around $36,800 on approximately 205,000 vehicles — one of the higher inventory counts we've seen in recent months. Higher inventory counts generally mean more consumer choice, which creates downward pressure on asking prices. Dealers holding aged units while new inventory arrives are going to face increasingly difficult conversations about what those units are actually worth.
Days-to-sale is the metric that will matter most heading into spring. If your current inventory is moving well, newer acquisitions at lower cost have the potential for good margin. If you're sitting on vehicles that came in at peak prices six months ago, the window to move them without taking a loss is narrowing.
The CUSMA Wildcard
Prime Minister Carney and President Trump agreed to discuss renegotiating CUSMA — the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement that is, essentially, the legal framework for how vehicles and parts move across the North American border. For the Canadian auto industry, CUSMA terms are the whole ballgame. A significant renegotiation could affect everything from where vehicles are manufactured to what new cars cost to what import regulations apply to refurbished or cross-border used vehicles.
It's worth following this closely throughout 2026. Any changes to trade terms will take time to materialize — but long-lead decisions like inventory mix and pricing strategy benefit from early awareness of what's coming.
Three Industry Stories Shaping the Spring Market
Tesla Is Ending the Model S and Model X
Tesla announced it's ending production of the Model S and Model X — its original and flagship models — to free up factory capacity for its Optimus humanoid robot. This is a meaningful signal about where Tesla sees its future. For the used market, Model S and X owners who've been holding now face a future without new replacement options from Tesla. That's going to affect resale values for those vehicles, likely positively for clean examples as scarcity grows over time.
Stellantis — A Decade of Decline
Stellantis's sales have fallen in nine of the last ten years, with Canadian market share dropping from 15.4% in 2015 to just 6% in 2025. That is a remarkable collapse for a company that controls Jeep, Ram, Chrysler, and Dodge. The root issue, by most analysis, is the absence of affordable vehicles at entry price points that consumers actually want to buy. For dealers carrying Stellantis inventory, it's worth thinking about how brand perception affects your trade-in appraisals and your used lot mix.
Minivans Had a Banner Year — And Used Values Are Following
Minivans posted 34% sales growth in 2025 — the fastest-growing new car segment in Canada. That demand is now flowing into used market stability. Families who missed out on new minivan deals are shopping used. If you're consistently passing on minivans at auction because they feel old-fashioned, the data says you're leaving a reliable retail segment on the table. The Pacifica, Carnival, and Sienna are all proving their case with buyers right now.
For the Spring Season: The Practical Read
Spring buying season typically brings higher consumer traffic and stronger retail conversion — but this year, it arrives alongside elevated inventory, cautious consumers, and macro uncertainty. The dealers who'll do best are the ones acquiring at current market (not six months ago), moving aged inventory before carrying costs compound, and being clear-eyed about which segments offer real margin opportunity versus which ones feel familiar but aren't performing.
Clean and practical is still the safest acquisition in this market. Full-size trucks and well-priced family utility vehicles remain strong. And if you're not already watching minivans closely, spring 2026 might be a good time to start.